We weren’t selected. So what happens then?

So that was running through my mind today. The nervousness and excitement I felt the night before responding to an e-mail about what we have been up to on our project quickly faded after receiving the typical cookie-cutter e-mail response the following morning. Immediately, I went back and analyzed the steps I took leading up to this point in my mind. Trying to make reason to what could had gone wrong.

Did we not have the talent? Can’t be. These guys have been able to build whatever is thrown at them. Did we give enough effort? Yes. Attended a few events. Followed-up. Applied early. Continued iterating the project. Could it be I wasn’t clearer enough with our objective? Possibly. But, isn’t it the reason why we’d want to apply in the first place — so that we can solicit for feedback to shape a more clearer objective?!

Dwelling over spilled milk is futile. It doesn’t get you anywhere. While I always hate “losing” (and am never the best loser), I quickly reminded myself to take the news in stride and refocus my attention/energy at the tasks at hand. It’s not the end of the road and our pursuit doesn’t stop there. And there was positives that came from this process - besides meeting a handful of talented/bright folks in the industry, I saw a few holes in our project that will need to be figured out and patched up. And that’s what I’ll have to work on.

The hill is a bit steeper now. Mentally, it’s tougher. No one said it was easy.

Here’s a quote that sums up today for me: I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward. - Thomas Edisonfree naked celebrities
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Sitting the sidelines.

I was at home having my Twitter page loaded up Sunday evening when I got a tweet about JP Morgan buying out Bear Sterns for $2. The following tweet was “Is it missing a ‘0′?”. I was wondering the same thing. Checked it on Bloomberg and confirmed again on Y! Finance. Nope. It was true. It was astonishing to read as the news unfolded. I was following it along with the rest of the Twitter community (those interested in this anyway). Everyone speculated what would happen next. There were much speculation and fear about how bad this will hurt the markets the following day. I slept by my laptop (as I do most nights) having the alarm set at 6:15am PST.

I was up the next morning following the news as well. I have a friend IM me to chatter about the implications of this. I directed him to all the good resources I got from blogs and links from Twitter. He asked me what I thought about Lehman Brothers and if that was going to be the next to go under. Frankly, I was deeply surprised the market didn’t fall much considering what had happened. I told him no one knew how this would play out and that’s not a bet I can even entertain. I already got out of Goldman a week earlier at $168. That’s about the only financial institution I wanted to hold — I figured I would need to own the best if I don’t fully understand their business — but even then, it was too risky for me. So I stood on the sideline. My friend told me his co-worker decided to short LEH. I thought to myself: “I hope he knows what he’s doing because he’s either going to make a nice profit or he’ll get slaughtered.” I just told him that’s going to be a dangerous play…

A day later, here’s the picture:

Lehman (LEH) after earnings

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My Prosper Account Update vs. The Dow

A little over a month ago, I decided to try out a site called Prosper, an online community for lending and borrowing money. The neat thing is that you can loan as little as $50 to various folks at a interest in which you bid for. Since the stock market was (and still is) very bearish, I gave this site a try. Here are the results:

My Prosper Account Update

I made a few modifications to the snapshot so I don’t have to disclose how little money I’m loaning. I’m making an average of 13.1% interest on my loans with one late payment. (Although, I checked today and it looks like that late payment is on its way.) Not bad at all! Considering the fact that this same time, the Dow has fallen 3.83% and without any certainity about a favorable rally is coming soon.

The Bearish Dow Jan. 28 - March 10, 2008

Let’s see how it will do this month, though. I’m hoping I won’t have too many missed payments or else that will make me reconsider the next time I want add some more funds to the account.

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Two stocks for a portfolio.

Jade has a trading account with Zecco now. I’m going to be using as I experiment with the Zecco trading platform. I set it up two weeks ago. for her and I started investing last week. I will be be managing her portfolio which brings the total of portfolios that I manage to three.

There are four positions I have in the portfolio: Clear Channel Cummunications, Inc. (CCU), Altria Corp. (MO), Goldman Sach (GS), and AT&T (T). I’ll talk about AT&T and Altria Corp. in another post, though.

Here are the reasons why I bought GS:

(From Reuters - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is a global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net-worth individuals. Goldman Sachs activities are divided into three segments: Investment Banking, Trading and Principal Investments, and Asset Management and Securities Services.)

  • They have slashed 1,500 jobs cut in their yearly performance review.
  • They earned $11.73 EPS for 2005, $20.93 EPS 2006, and $26.34 EPS 2007.
  • Their 1 year stock performance is down -15% to date. They are trading less than 7x 2007 earnings.
  • Financial stocks are not liked right now, but I think there’s only a 10-15 point downside and a 40-75 point upside (when financials recover). If GS can pull a $30.00 EPS for 2008, you’re looking at a best-of-breed stock trading at less than 6x earnings with a double digit growth rate (14%).

Here are the reasons why I bought CCU:

(From Reuters - Clear Channel Communications, Inc., incorporated in 1974, is a diversified media company with four segments: radio broadcasting; Americas outdoor advertising; international outdoor advertising, and other, which contributed 52%, 19%, 22% and 7%, respectively, of the Company’s total revenue, during the year ended December 31, 2006. The Company owns 1,176 radio stations and a national radio network operating in the United States, and also owns or operates approximately 195,000 Americas outdoor advertising display faces and approximately 717,000 international outdoor advertising display faces.)

  • Eddie Lampert invested in CCU back in Nov. 2007.
  • Highfields Capital Management LP who once opposed of the buyout from two private equity firms Bain Capital Partners LLC and Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, increased their stake in CCU from 6.4% to 7.7% on Jan. 31st.
  • UBS reports a 5.8% stake on Feb. 12th.
  • Department of Justice gives conditional approval of buyout today, Feb. 14th.
  • That was the final regulatory hurdle. However, the DOJ have certain conditions that have to be met —
    • DOJ is requiring the private firms to sell six radio stations in Cincinnati, Houston, Las Vegas and San Francisco to address anticompetitive concerns.
    • Federal Communications Commission requires the sale of radio stations in 42 markets.
  • Gap Broadcasting II (Gap West) closed on its purchase of 57 Clear Channel Communications Inc. stations located in 13 U.S. markets.
  • If all conditions are met, the buyout is expected to close Q1 2008.

What do you think?

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Noise in the Finance Sector

Yahoo is supposed to launch “TechTicker,” their finance video website today. Not too surprising however, they have pushed back the launch date. Regardless, I’ll be eager to check it out. And have you checked out all the news going on surrounding finance sites? Here’s a mini recap:

  • Rupert Murdock (News Corp.) buys out Dow Jones and looking to turn the Wall St. Journal to a ad-supported mode (no subscription wall!)
  • AOL Finance launches redesign in beta in November when they were the third largest money and finance site.
  • AOL Finance overtake Yahoo Finance as the largest money and finance site in December according to comScore’s data (does help to have blog sites like Blogging Stocks)
  • CNN Money launches redesign focusing less on graphs and more on video, today.

That’s of course the previous news in the finance space:

What does this all mean? I hope to prove my assumption to be correct — there are still plenty of opportunity in the finance space on the web. There’s a need to improve the way we see, manage, and stay knowledgable about our investments/finance.


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Several References in Laying the Foundation…

http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/10/financial-model.html

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http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/10/glenn-kelmans-f.html

Financial markets, broken down. :)

Web Technology and Finance

I was reading Sramana Mitra’s blog and came across this interesting fact:

Personal Finance
Personal Finance is an important vertical as 61% of the Internet users use the internet to research stocks or check their bank accounts and around 73% of the Internet users’ research sources for investments, mortgages and insurance, online. eMarketer expects the financial services sector to increase its online ad spending by 33.3% in 2007 to $2.4 billion and reach $3.52 billion by 2010, which makes the sector one of the largest advertisers online, and thus validates News Corp’s entry into the space through the acquisition of Dow Jones. News Corp. will go well beyond Personal Finance, and with this acquisition, will become the top player in the Business and Finance segment overall, if they play their cards right.

Investments in self and for the public.

Last weekend, I stopped by Borders to pick up a few books: Guy Kawasaki’s Art of the Start and Christopher Browne’s The Little Book to Value Investing.

I figured Guy Kawasaki’s book, Art of the Start would be a good book for me to reference as we move forward with our internal gig. While many has praised this book, some have stood strongly against it, stating it’s a book without much depth and that Guy hasn’t really gotten much experience “starting up a company” while basically living on his former fame of being an Apple evangelist back in the 80s. They point to Guy’s latest startup to prove that only through his popularity and his venture firm for the reasons that Truemors has caught the public’s attention, not because it is a brilliant idea. Despite the negative comments from the community, one clear fact is still: Guy’s popular, successful, and very influential in the technology/entrepreneurship world. And because of that, I feel his common sense approach in writing this book to help aspiring entrepreneurs start a company will be worth read.

As for Christopher Browne’s The Little Book to Value Investing, I’ve read Jim Cramer’s books and follow his teachings as a growth investor for quite some time now. With Mr. Browne’s book, I wanted to understand the flip side investing: value investing. What is value investing you ask? The concept Mr. Browne simplified it to be: “Buy steaks when their on sale” or “Buying a dollar for 66 cents.” And the biggest and most successful investor uses this type of investing methodology? The one and only, Warren Buffet.

Through this past week, the internet disruptions (it was down for two days — approx. 35 hours) and the holiday weekday, I was able to do plenty of reading. I was able to complete Mr. Browne’s book in two and half days (for some, that’s slow, but when you’re trying to take in all the tips and advice, it takes a while for me to soak it up). Some pointers?

  1. Buy a dollar for 66 cents.
  2. Insider activity is a good indicator for the health and direction of the company.
  3. Technical analysis is great at telling investors about past performance, not future (Different from Mr. Jeffrey Won’s take, a senior VP at Morgan Stanley in Sacramento where he charts often and weighs Technical Analysis to be 60% of his investment decisions).
  4. Value investing has way less volatility than growth investing.
  5. Historically, value investing beats all investment vehicles and methodology.
  6. Pay attention to the basic principle of buying below intrinsic value with a margin of safety and exercising patience.

The book gave insight to how a value investor thinks and strategies (it helps that Mr. Browne has a tremendous track record as well.) The debate about growth vs. value investing can go on forever, but one fact that shouldn’t be lost is that “homework” needs to be done on both the company, competitors, and the economy. Without it, you’re practically playing Baccarat in Vegas. Doing your homework: understanding the fundamentals and health of a company, understanding the revenue growths, the bull markets, etc. are all that helps you get an edge on making the right decisions.

I look forward to reading the next investing book I have: John Bogle’s The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns. A very short, simple, and highly rated book. On the mean time, I figured I’ll continue my read of Entrepreneurship by HBR that I borrowed from my friend’s family two weekends ago.

Another video worth watching.

In terms of trying to build a startup, there are some ideas that does not require much resources and some that require a lot of resources in order to be successful. This video shows five entrepreneurs that has avoided raising any venture capital money simply because they didn’t need to. One of the speakers on the panel, James Hong, raises some great points (while being probably the most outspoken speaker of the panel) and had, in my opinion, deep insight with startups. I like his raw personality and his desire to speak his mind. Any thoughts after watching the video?


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Business & Personal Loans. Great Rates. Prosper.